Your revenue line is only as good as the comparable sales behind it, and comps are easy to get wrong in ways that all point the same direction: up. Here are the five we see most often, and the check that catches each one.

1. The comp is not the same product

A 70-foot lot in a gated section is not a 50-foot lot on a collector road, even in the same subdivision. Neither is a finished lot the same as a paper lot sold before the streets went in. Line comps up by lot width, finish level and position before you average anything.

2. The date is doing the work

A sale from eighteen months ago reflects that market, not this one. If prices have moved, adjust the comp — or drop it. A set of comps that are all from the top of the last cycle will tell you a confident story about a market that no longer exists.

3. Builder takedowns hide the real price

The recorded price on a builder takedown rarely tells the whole story. Escalators, phased closings, development credits and marketing contributions all move the effective number. Ask the broker or the builder what was actually paid, net of concessions.

4. The outlier you happen to like

Every comp set has one sale well above the rest. It is tempting to treat it as proof of where the market is going. Unless you can explain exactly why that lot sold for more — view, size, a motivated buyer — treat it as noise and leave it out.

If a single comp is carrying your deal, you don’t have a market. You have an anecdote.

5. Too few comps to mean anything

Three sales are a starting point, not a conclusion. Widen the radius or the date range until you have enough to see a pattern, then weight the closest matches more heavily rather than relying on any one of them.

A quick checklist

  • Same lot width, finish level and product type?
  • Sold in the current market, or adjusted for the change?
  • Effective price after incentives and escalators?
  • Outliers explained or excluded?
  • Enough sales to show a pattern?

Run the five checks, then price your lots at the middle of what survives. If the deal only works at the top of the range, that tells you something important about the deal.